The Baseball off season is by far the most active and interesting of the four major North American sports. Superstars are routinely traded, prospects dealt for established players, and gigantic contracts handed out (all with guaranteed money – in MLB, that signature means something).
Because of that, the MLB off season is often as interesting as the games itself. Below we outline what we think is the best possible move – as well as a plan B – for each team. We’re not suggesting these are the most likely things to happen, nor are we suggesting that they all can happen, just that these are the optimal moves for each club.
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We’ve tried to consider all the factors inherent in payroll, team outlook, and front office goals. The one thing we don’t really consider are the rumors about what cities or clubs a player might “like”, unless the player’s explicitly said they’re leaning towards one city over another (and even then, paycheck and playoff-contending rosters always seem to take precedent).
In evaluating contracts and team spending, we’re working under the assumption that 1 WARWins Above Replacement. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s contributions in all facets of the game and quantify how many more wins that player contributed than a “replacement level” player would have (a replacement level player being a hypothetical “AAAA player” every team has in its farm system. costs about $7m on the open market, so contracts that return better than that rate are good, those that don’t are bad.
Jump to a Division
AL East – AL Central – AL West
NL East – NL Central – NL West
We’ve looked at the AL Central and the NL East, home to 2015’s World Series Opponents, now we move to the NL West, home to the best pitcher (and maybe the best player) in the Majors.
Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB Ranks: 
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 17th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 27th
Bullpen FIP-: 21st
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 6th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 82-80 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. -3)
Team Needs: A productive second baseman. (-1 fWAR)
There’s some sense out there that the Diamondbacks are a young team on the cusp of contention – if that’s the case, they’ll need to address the gigantic hole at 2B (-1 fWAR from the 2B position in 2015). They definitely don’t have any long-term solutions in the high minors (Dominic Leyaba is their best middle infield prospect, and he’s 20 years old and was in A+ this year). If the D-Backs are contenders, adding even a league-average 2B adds 3 WAR.
Move to make: Sign Asdrubal Cabrera. We’re not convinced the D-Backs actually are either a particularly young team (their three most productive position players are 28, 28, and 29 next season and they got only 26% of their WAR from players 26 and under), or actually a contender (they were basically a .500 club in a division that includes the Giants and Dodgers, both 90-95 win clubs), but if they are, Cabrera makes the most sense for where they are.
He’s not young, but he’s not old (29 this year), he’s a roughly league average player, and he’s likely to be affordable. The Diamondbacks can address a significant need while not investing too much in an overpriced or “over-old” player.
Plan B: Sign Ben Zobrist. Essentially the reverse of our advice for the Chicago White Sox. Zobrist is older, but he’s better, and he’s also more versatile. He’ll probably cost more, but if the D-Backs have convinced themselves they’re contenders, Zobrist moves them in that direction.
Colorado Rockies
MLB Ranks:
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 30th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 29th
Bullpen FIP-: 18th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 25th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 71-91 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. -3)
Team Needs: Undertake a gigantic rebuild.
The Rockies were very bad in 2015, and they easily could have been worse. They failed to catch the wave with the peak of talent from Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, and are now looking towards shore with longing and disappointment. They realized this during the season and dealt Tulo, but did so late enough that his value had dropped due to age and injury, and ended up getting only a modest return for him.
Move to make: Trade everyone over 29 who has value. The Rockies have one good young player in Nolan Arenado (25 next year, but arbitration eligible), a few solid prospects, and then a bunch of late-20s, early-30s guys with middling production who will be well into decline once the club’s young talent matures.
If Carlos Gonzalez, Jose Reyes (who came back in the Tulo trade, is a year older, less productive, and costs $22m/yr.), Nick Hundley, and Charlie Blackmon are playing for the club on opening day, then GM Jeff Bridich has made a mistake.
Plan B: They’re already at Plan B – a team that finishes 10 games under .500 and is handing out it’s top 5 salaries to players 30 and over has already burned through Plan A. Time to tear it down and build it back up again.
Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB Ranks:
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 3rd
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 2nd
Bullpen FIP-: 5th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 16th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 89-73 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +3)
Team Need: Starting pitching beyond their big two (especially because Greinke is unlikely to repeat his 2015 performance).
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Move to make: Sign Zack Greinke and/or David Price. The Dodgers went the season and the postseason with a rotation of Kershaw, Greinke, and crossed-fingers (the duo provided just over 80% of the fWAR from Dodger starters). Even though Greinke turns 32 next season, the Dodgers can only afford to let him go if they sign Price as a replacement. Price isn’t much younger (31 next August), but he’s just as good (and probably better, FIP- of 74 v. 79 over past four seasons).
Both will likely be overpriced by the middle of their contracts, much less the end (over the past decade, only 16 pitchers age 32+ have posted a 4+ fWAR season, and only six did it more than once), but the Dodgers seem to working with Monopoly money, so grab them both and let the TV contract pick up the tab.
Plan B: Sign Jason Heyward. If the Dodgers payroll is really as endless as it seems, there’s no reason they don’t sign all three players. The Dodgers should sign Heyward for all the same reasons as the Tigers – he’s the best free agent on the market and he’s only 26.
San Diego Padres
MLB Ranks: 
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 22nd
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 15th
Bullpen FIP-: 19th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 29th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 72-90 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +2)
Team Needs: Find a way to keep a rebuild afloat while dragged down by the Kemp-Upton millstone.
It’s very hard to make a meaningful suggestion as to what the Padres should do because it’s so unclear what it is they’ve been trying to do the past few years and what their plans are now that basically every high risk move has failed. On the one hand, they’ve got two solid young pieces up the middle in catcher Derek Norris and 2B Corey Spangenberg and one youngish front-of-rotation arm in Tyson Ross.
On the other hand, they have $67m tied up in contracts for Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton, and James Shields for the next two years (and $42.75m in Kemp and Shields the year after that, and $21.75m in Kemp for one more after that), and those three combined for 3.1 fWAR this season. Even worse, Kemp and Upton are in the middle of a years-long decline that shows no sign of reversing. At least Shields might bounce back to be a productive pitcher (the Steamer projection puts him at 3 WAR this year).
Move to make: Invent time travel and go back to 2012 when Kemp and Upton were last productive, otherwise eat $42m/year by keeping both Kemp and Upton on the bench.
Let us explain just how bad this situation is: Kemp and Upton have been worth 2.7 fWAR over the past three seasons.
That’s not 2.7 fWAR per player, nor is it combined per year – that’s total for both players over six combined seasons. Kemp was such a disaster defensively (and so mediocre offensively) that he compiled half the position player WAR that Tyson Ross did and Ross, as we mentioned above, is the Padres best starting pitcher.
The Upton and Kemp trades were so bad that the Padres have almost zero chance of moving either player. If they can find someone willing to even take on the salaries, that would be a trade worth making. Kemp still swings it well enough (109 wRC+ in 2015, 140 in 2014) that an AL team might be willing to take him on as a DH, but otherwise the Padres are a mule on a highway during a hailstorm – they’ve no other choice but to suffer and wait for it to be over.
Plan B: Continue the rebuild they’ve already begun. The Padres have some good talent in the minors and they picked up even more in the Craig Kimbrel trade. In particular, they’ve got a couple of outfielders who should be ready for the majors soon (and who should replace the spots currently befouled by Upton and Kemp). The Padres have some older, still productive players (unfortunately several, like Shields or even Andrew Cashner, are more ‘deadline trade after a rebound in value’ guys) that should absolutely be moved for whatever prospects they can get in return.
San Francisco Giants
MLB Ranks: 
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 2nd
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 25th
Bullpen FIP-: 20tht
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 2nd
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 89-73 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. -5)
Team Needs: Improve the starting rotation. The Giants have a terrific young ace in Madison Bumgarner and not much else. Bumgarner accounted for 5.1 fWAR in 2015 while every other starter combined for 2.1. That’s, um…bad.
Chris Heston is a fine #3 or #4 starter, but he’s not a #2 – especially for a team trying to compete with the Dodgers. A team trying to compete for championships generally can’t afford an average rotation, much less one of the worst in the league.
Move to make: Outbid the Dodgers for either Greinke or Price. The Giants can’t spend quite as freely as the Dodgers, but they certainly aren’t pinching any pennies. They supposedly want to avoid the luxury tax in 2016, but with one former ace leaving for free agency (Tim Lincecum) and another for retirement (Tim Hudson), the Giants have $30m coming off the books. That’s enough to snag either Greinke or Price.
The Giants have a lot to offer either pitcher beyond a big contract. The club has a young core of position players (6th most fWAR in MLB from players 26 or younger) and the best pitcher’s park in the majors. San Francisco will be a very attractive landing spot for either Greinke or Price.
Plan B: Grab at least two of the second-tier starters. The Giants really can’t fall behind the Dodgers, and if they don’t land Greinke or Price, it’s likely because the Dodgers snagged one of them. Since the Giants already have an ace, slotting two pitchers like Jordan Zimmerman, Yovani Gallardo, or Scott Kazmir into the rotation will give them a very serviceable 2-3-4 (with Heston).
Signing more than one free agent pitcher will also take some of the sting out of the draft pick surrender process (since every good starter on the market except for Kazmir has received a qualifying offer).
That’s the best move (and the second best) for each of the teams in the NL West, come back later for the rest of the MLB.