The Baseball off season is by far the most active and interesting of the four major North American sports. Superstars are routinely traded, prospects dealt for established players, and gigantic contracts handed out (all with guaranteed money – in MLB, that signature means something).
Because of that, the MLB off season is often as interesting as the games itself. Below we outline what we think is the best possible move – as well as a plan B – for each team. We’re not suggesting these are the most likely things to happen, nor are we suggesting that they all can happen, just that these are the optimal moves for each club.
We’ve tried to consider all the factors inherent in payroll, team outlook, and front office goals. The one thing we don’t really consider are the rumors about what cities or clubs a player might “like”, unless the player’s explicitly said they’re leaning towards one city over another (and even then, paycheck and playoff-contending rosters always seem to take precedent).
In evaluating contracts and team spending, we’re working under the assumption that 1 WARWins Above Replacement. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s contributions in all facets of the game and quantify how many more wins that player contributed than a “replacement level” player would have (a replacement level player being a hypothetical “AAAA player” every team has in its farm system. costs about $7m on the open market, so contracts that return better than that rate are good, those that don’t are bad.
Jump to a Division
AL East – AL Central – AL West
NL East – NL Central – NL West
We’ve looked at five of the six MLB divisions, and we now complete our series by looking at the AL West.
Houston Astros
MLB Ranks: 
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 4th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 9th
Bullpen FIP-: 3rd
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 19th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 93-69 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. -7)
Team Need: Improve at the infield corners.
The Astros are a well rounded team, with a top-10 lineup, rotation, and bullpen. They’re also young and on the rise. Given they’re a contender right now, they can’t afford to get league average offensive production from their corner infield spots. Chris Carter’s lone tool (his massive power) is no longer worth a roster spot (if it ever was), and third base is completely up in the air with the possible departure of Jed Lowrie to free agency and the endless wait for Luis Valbuena’s breakout (hint: he’s 30, it’s not going to happen).
Move to make: Sign Daniel Murphy if he can be had at the right price. Murphy has been a better fielder at 3B than 2B over the past few seasons, and he’s a solid hitter as well. If his playoff performance hasn’t over inflated his value (which it might have) he’s a solid player on a 3-year contract. The only other big corner name out there is Chris Davis, who is likely more expensive than the Astros would like for his production over his next contract.
Plan B: Resign Tony Sipp. It’s a boring move, but it’s a solid one. It won’t address the corners, but the Astros have a great bullpen and they’d surely like to keep it that way. He’s older, but he’s been productive the past two seasons with the Astros. They’ll likely get him at a good price, and they already know he’s a good fit.
Los Angeles Angels
MLB Ranks: _(5966121708).jpg)
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 15th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 19th
Bullpen FIP-: 12th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 7th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 79-83 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +6)
Team Need: A productive leftfielder (-1.4 fWAR from the position in 2015).
A playoff-contending team cannot survive with negative WAR from a prime offensive position such as a corner outfield spot. One could argue that the Angels aren’t actually that clear a contender (their pythagorean W-L has them as a sub-.500 team), but as long as they’ve got the best player in baseball, they need to surround him with the talent to win championships.
Move to make: Sign Justin Upton. Upton is a solid, relatively young left fielder who still has the potential for all-star level production. The only question about whether he fits is a matter of payroll – he’s going to get paid by someone this offseason. The Angels are still feeling the weight of previously bad contracts: they’ve got $65m tied up in three players that provided just over 4 WAR in 2015 – that’s not pretty. If the Angels want to contend, they may have to pay more than they really want.
Plan B: Trade for Brett Gardner. Neither as good nor as young as Upton, Gardner is likely more affordable. He’s under contract through 2019 at a very reasonable price ($11-13m/year) and projects to be a 3-4 WAR player through the first two years of that and a 2-3 WAR player the final two. The Yankees also seem primed to move him after picking up Aaron Hicks from the Twins. The Angels don’t have much in the way of prospects, which makes a trade harder, but that also means they don’t have an OF prospect in the wings – they have to fill the LF spot now.
Oakland Athletics
MLB Ranks: 
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 18th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 13th
Bullpen FIP-: 27th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 26th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 77-85 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. -9)
Team Need: A lit bit of everything, pitching in particular.
The A’s weren’t as bad as their record suggests – they were one of the unluckiest teams in baseball – but it still wasn’t pretty. Like the Tampa Bay Rays, the A’s are always one false step from falling off of a cliff. They routinely have one of the lowest payrolls (4th lowest in 2015) and stay afloat through the mad scientist machination of the most valuable GM in MLB history. For every “whoops, just traded away the AL MVP” move, Billy Beane makes three “I’ll give you three nickels for one quarter” trade, and he’s kept the A’s near-perennial contenders for a decade and a half.
That said, Beane and the A’s are paying their top three salaries (and more than 1/3 of the 2016 payroll) to three players who combined for -0.5 fWAR in 2015. That’s definitely an “over the cliff” sort of situation. Worse yet, only one of those three (Jed Lowrie) has a decent chance of bouncing back – the other two are either well into a steady decline (Billy Butler, who’s the highest paid player on the team and has put up 1.0, -0.6, and -0.7 fWAR the past three seasons) or a 36-year old outfielder who’s gotten slow and fragile (Coco Crisp, who had a ghastly 35 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR over just 44 games).
Move to make: Honestly, within the realistic constraints of the A’s situation, the only free agent moves that might make sense are rolling the dice on a young bounce-back candidate: maybe Mat Latos for the rotation (I’m not sure Mike Leake dropped enough to be cheap enough for the A’s), Trevor Cahill in the bullpen (or even crazier, returning him to the rotation), or Austin Jackson to replace Coco Crisp in the OF.
Plan B: Brainwash Billy Butler into retiring to become a Benedictine monk. Seriously, he’s a disaster and Beane has two more seasons of paying the worst player on his team to flush plate appearances down the toilet. No team can afford to have a 99 wRC+ hitter as their primary DH, especially not the A’s. Their only hope is to work some crazy Billy Beane magic and pick some club’s pocket – maybe use whatever hypnotic spell convinced Beane to sign Butler in the first place.
Seattle Mariners
MLB Ranks: 
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 8th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 17th
Bullpen FIP-: 22nd
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 24th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 74-88 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +2)
Team Need: Address at least one of their major holes.
The Mariners are an uneven club, with many spots either significant strengths or significant weaknesses. For every Kyle Seager (3.9 fWAR in 2015 and only $8m salary in 2016), Nelson Cruz (4.8 fWAR and $14.25m) or Franklin Gutierrez (2.3 fWAR in only 59 games and $1.5m), they have a black hole at catcher (-1.9 fWAR in 2015) or 1B (-0.7 fWAR).
For a team paying $24m/year to Robinson Cano (2.1 fWAR in 2015 and 33 years old in 2016) and $25.8m to Felix Hernandez (2.8 fWAR and 30 years old), they’re in win-now, whether they like it or not, and they can’t afford holes like the ones they have.
Move to make: Sign Chris Davis. The Mariners have DJ Peterson in their farm system, but after a shaky 2015 split between rookie ball and AA, he’s not looking ready for the majors in the next season or two. Davis turns 30 in 2016, and in two out of the past three seasons he’s absolutely mashed (teams looking at him will just have to hope 2014 was an outlier). For the Mariners to contend, they have to bet on rebounds from Cano and King Felix, Cruz to keep hitting like he is (now PED-free, of course), and filling in their biggest lineup hole.
Plan B: Grab a starter or two to help out Hernandez. King Felix definitely gets the benefit of the doubt after an off year (despite a pretty W-L record, by pretty much every measure he had his worst season in seven or eight years), but he needs help. Because of injury or inconsistency, they’ve got some variety of question mark in every rotation spot after Hernandez – signing a Johnny Cueto or a Jordan Zimmerman will lock that down.
Texas Rangers
MLB Ranks: .jpg)
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 19th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 24th
Bullpen FIP-: 26th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 5th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 83-69 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +5)
Team Need: Across the board pitching.
It’s something of a mystery how the Texas Rangers won the AL West. They were a bottom half offense and a bottom third pitching staff – only their team defense was among the best in MLB.
In Cole Hamels, they have a legit #1 and but their #3 starter, Yovani Gallardo, is departing for free agency (and Gallardo may be their second-best, depending on what you think of Colby Lewis). They also have some lively bullpen arms (especially young Keone Kela), but like the rotation, there are problems going deeper. It’s very unlikely they’ll be lucky enough to outrun the young-and-improving Houston Astros again; they need to get better.
Move to make: Sign or trade for two top bullpen arms: Tony Sipp, Darren O’Day, or even Aroldis Chapman from the Reds’ firesale.
Assuming the Rangers are trying to win within the closing window of their top stars (Of Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, and Cole Hamels, Fielder is the youngest, turning 32 near the beginning of the 2016 season). The Rangers are clearly willing to spend (8th highest payroll in 2015), but they may be nearing their ceiling – bullpen arms are a way to find value on the cheap.
Plan B: Sign Johnny Cueto. A bolder – and much more expensive – move, only possible if the club is willing to spend more. If they are, adding Cueto makes a lot of sense. A lot of people look at Cueto as a #1, but he’s really not. As a #2 behind Hamels, Cueto looks far nastier than he does trying to bear the greatest responsibilities within a rotation.
That brings us to the end of our off-season preview; we’ll return in the Spring to see how the teams did.