The Baseball off season is by far the most active and interesting of the four major North American sports. Superstars are routinely traded, prospects dealt for established players, and gigantic contracts handed out (all with guaranteed money – in MLB, that signature means something).
Because of that, the MLB off season is often as interesting as the games itself. Below we outline what we think is the best possible move – as well as a plan B – for each team. We’re not suggesting these are the most likely things to happen, nor are we suggesting that they all can happen, just that these are the optimal moves for each club.
We’ve tried to consider all the factors inherent in payroll, team outlook, and front office goals. The one thing we don’t really consider are the rumors about what cities or clubs a player might “like”, unless the player’s explicitly said they’re leaning towards one city over another (and even then, paycheck and playoff-contending rosters always seem to take precedent).
In evaluating contracts and team spending, we’re working under the assumption that 1 WARWins Above Replacement. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s contributions in all facets of the game and quantify how many more wins that player contributed than a “replacement level” player would have (a replacement level player being a hypothetical “AAAA player” every team has in its farm system. costs about $7m on the open market, so contracts that return better than that rate are good, those that don’t are bad.
Jump to a Division
AL East – AL Central – AL West
NL East – NL Central – NL West
Completing our look at the National League, we move to the NL Central, home to the three best W-L records in 2015.
Chicago Cubs
MLB Ranks:
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 20th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 1st
Bullpen FIP-: 4th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 9th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 90-72 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +7)
Team Need: A short-term centerfielder who can help them win now.
There’s a lot of talk about how the Cubs need to add another starter behind Arrieta and Lester, but the Cubs had the best starters in the majors by both FIP- and fWAR. More pitching is always good, but that’s by far their biggest need.
The Cubs had two players on the roster in 2015 who could play center, Dexter Fowler and Austin Jackson, and both are leaving for free agency (the Cubs have made a qualifying offer to Fowler). Albert Almora is the CF of the future, but he’s still a season or two away (he made some nice jumps at AA this year, raising his BB% to 7.1%, but there’s more development needed).
This puts the Cubs in the awkward position of trying to contend while also not placing an expensive roadblock in Almora’s path.
Move to make: Sign Denard Span to a short-term contract. Span had an extremely disappointing 2015 season (like pretty much every Nationals position player not named Bryce Harper), playing in only 61 games and accumulating 1.4 WAR. When he did play, however, he slashed .301/.365/.431, and from 2012-2014 he averaged 3.6 WAR.
A one-year contract would give Span a chance to reestablish his value while giving the Cubs a solid starter in CF until Almora arrives – if Span produces even 3 WAR over a full 2016, it will accomplish both goals nicely.
Plan B: Hope Austin Jackson doesn’t get a good offer and sign him instead. Jackson is a bit younger, so a longer deal doesn’t hurt quite as much. Jackson has had two seasons off his early peak (0.9 WAR in 2014, 2.3 WAR in 2015), so teams might be more hesitant to pay out for him. If he can be gotten at a good price, he’d make a workable starter until Almora reaches the majors and then a solid 4th outfielder after that.
Jackson likely doesn’t have as much value in the short term as Span, but he’s a more attractive long term option assuming a reasonable contract (Jackson will be 29 in 2016, Span 32).
Cincinnati Reds
MLB Ranks:
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 24th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 21st
Bullpen FIP-: 22nd
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 22nd
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 69-93 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. -5)
Team Need: New corner outfielders (maybe a whole new outfield in general).
In 2015 the Reds got -1.4 fWAR from their rightfielders, -2.7 fWAR from their leftfielders, and were the only team in MLB who received negative WAR from their outfield as a whole (-1 fWAR). That’s the bad kind of special.
The only genuinely productive outfielder they had was speedster Billy Hamilton who contributed 1.9 fWAR in 114 games. However even he’s got issues, contributing all of his value through baserunning and defense while posting a 52 wRC+. There’s only so valuable a player can be when his slash line is .226/.274/.289. The Reds, however, have few outfield prospects ready to fill the gap. Jesse Winker will likely see the majors in 2016, but after him there’s a very large gap in talent level and development.
Move to make: Trade Aroldis Chapman. Chapman is an incredibly valuable reliever, posting 2.5 fWAR and due to his dominance – and his unique talents (specifically, throwing the ball way, way faster than anyone in history) – he’s one of the few relievers in the game truly worth coveting. There are several contenders (real or delusional) who have bullpen issues and will likely give up genuinely valuable prospects (ideally some outfielders) in return.
Plan B: Trade anyone else they can. The Reds are a mess. Good thing for them, they know it and entered the off season explicitly willing to trade anyone and everyone. About the only player they likely can’t move is Joey Votto, since he probably won’t be willing to waive his no trade clause (though many players have said that before and then changed their mind when the trade took them to a top team).
Milwaukee Brewers
MLB Ranks:
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 27th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 23rd
Bullpen FIP-: 9th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 23rd
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 82-80 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. -3)
Team Needs: A full rebuild.
The Brewers are in the same situation as the Rockies, just a bit further downstream. They made moves a while back trying to catch the running crest of talent from Prince Fielder and (juicebox) Ryan Braun, then Carlos Gomez and Jonathan Lucroy, and now they have nothing to show for it other than six more years of Ryan Braun and the 2015 collapse of the #4 MVP vote-getter (Lucroy went from 6.1 fWAR in 2014 to 1.1 in 2015 – and “catcher turning 30” is one of those phrases that doesn’t scream “rebound to MVP candidate form”).
Because they’re not particularly old (only 9% of their WAR from players 32+), there might be a tendency to think they need a re-tool rather than a rebuild; they don’t. They’re a team that projects to finish well below .500, even if everyone who could rebound does. They produced the 4th least WAR in MLB and play in the division with the three best records in 2015 – they’re not just a move away.
Move to make: Trade Jonathan Lucroy. By trading Carlos Gomez (their other player with big rebound potential), they signaled the rebuild whether they admit it or not. We don’t think Lucroy is going to rebound much (the Steamer projection of .273/.339/.417 and 2.7 WAR seems about right), but other teams might. If the Padres are willing to take the risks they did on Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton, there could easily be a team out there thinking Lucroy will look more like the 2013-2014 version (say .280/.350/.450 and 4 WAR).
Plan B: Shoot Ryan Braun into space with a gigantic cannon. Alternatively, be willing to trade anyone, including a few younger players like Khris Davis (he may be average player, but he’s a home run bombing average player – there are still teams willing to pay for that). Or the cannon thing (we really don’t like Braun).
Pittsburgh Pirates
MLB Ranks:
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 11th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 3rd
Bullpen FIP-: 7th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 27th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 93-69 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +5)
Team Need: Bolster the middle of the rotation.
The Pirates lost A.J. Burnett to retirement and J.A. Happ to free agency – the two combined for 4.9 fWAR (and 4.0 initials) in 2015. They have a burgeoning ace in Gerritt Cole, so the front of the rotation is locked down, but if they want to keep pace in the NL Central they’ll need to add at least one – and maybe two – good middle of the rotation arms.
Move to make: Sign one of the second-tier free agent starters (sometimes the moves are just that simple). They could go out and re-sign J.A. Happ, but Happ is aging (33) and doesn’t project to repeat his 2015 performance (it was his career year). The Pirates are probably better off signing one of the 2.5 WAR guys in their early 30s (Kazmir, Samardzija, Gallardo) and/or taking a flier on one of the 27-year old rebound prospects (Latos, Leake, Anderson). Combined with top prospect, Tyler Glasnow, who should make his debut in 2016, that should replace the lost production in the rotation.
Plan B: Trade for a middle of the rotation starter. As free agent signings occur, we’re likely to see some players become superfluous (especially the teams that sign Greinke or Price, since they likely “upgrade” a roster spot rather than fill a hole in the rotation). The Pirates have the best young outfield in baseball, so that turns a lot of their OF prospects into trade chips who can be dealt.
St. Louis Cardinals
MLB Ranks:
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 16th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 6th
Bullpen FIP-: 10th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 11th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 96-66 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +4)
Team Need: Replace the hole left by Jason Heyward.
The Cardinals are an annoyingly well run organization. They have been consistently successful, never seem to slip into the top 8 or so payrolls, and their farm system develops productive young players like a factory. Even with the tragic death of Oscar Tavaras, the team produced the most WAR by players 26 and younger, while producing the 6th most WAR overall.
A full quarter of that production came from Jason Heyward however, who leaves the Cardinals for free agency and the ripe, young age of 26. Heyward is the top position player on the free agent market, and due to his youth, our choice for best free agent overall. When we looked at the AL Central we suggested that $300m/10 years was probably a decent contract for Heyward. He’s good, he’s well-rounded, he’s consistent, and he’s young…he’s also gone…for the moment.
Move to make: Re-sign Jason Heyward. As my Ol’ Granpappy used to say, “The best way to fill a Jason Heyward Sized hole in your team’s roster is to sign Jason Heyward.” (Granpappy was weird as hell, but surprisingly specific). There’s no reason the Cardinals shouldn’t lock him up: he’s a young, complete, cornerstone player for a young, complete, well-rounded team. He goes out, plays the game the right way, and gets the job done consistently. He’s a perfect fit for the Cardinals.
Plan B: Sign a place-holder or trade for a starting RF. The Cardinals don’t have a top OF prospect in the high minors, so they’ll have to look elsewhere. Signing one of the big name outfielders (Cespedes, Gordon) isn’t a “Cardinals Move” unless they can get someone at a good price (unlikely, since those guys are probably going to get more than they’re worth).
It’s possible that they think either Tommy Pham or Randal Grichuk can handle things – both are solid defensive CF so either can probably handle RF. If they do this, our money would be on Grichuk, since he definitely swings a corner outfielder’s bat. Even if they do this, they’ll likely need to sign a 4th outfielder anyway to man the bench.
Austin Jackson or Dexter Fowler could work well as free agent who could either be a place-holder, a bench player, or the 3rd outfielder in a CF-RF rotation with Grichuk and Pham. Jackson probably will command less money, but he’s also a righty like Grichuk and Pham, whereas Fowler is a switch hitter (though older and likely more expensive).
That’s it for the National League, join us later in the week as we finish our look at the American League.