November 30, 2015

MLB Off Season: NL East – The Best Move (and a plan B) for every team.

The Baseball off season is by far the most active and interesting of the four major North American sports. Superstars are routinely traded, prospects dealt for established players, and gigantic contracts handed out (all with guaranteed money – in MLB, that signature means something).

Because of that, the MLB off season is often as interesting as the games itself. Below we outline what we think is the best possible move – as well as a plan B – for each team. We’re not suggesting these are the most likely things to happen, nor are we suggesting that they all can happen, just that these are the optimal moves for each club.

Villalobos Brothers With Mr. Mets

We’ve tried to consider all the factors inherent in payroll, team outlook, and front office goals. The one thing we don’t really consider are the rumors about what cities or clubs a player might “like”, unless the player’s explicitly said they’re leaning towards one city over another (and even then, paycheck and playoff-contending rosters always seem to take precedent).

In evaluating contracts and team spending, we’re working under the assumption that 1 WARWins Above Replacement. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s contributions in all facets of the game and quantify how many more wins that player contributed than a “replacement level” player would have (a replacement level player being a hypothetical “AAAA player” every team has in its farm system. costs about $7m on the open market, so contracts that return better than that rate are good, those that don’t are bad.

Jump to a Division

AL EastAL CentralAL West
NL East – NL CentralNL West

We began our series with the AL Central, home of the WS Champion Royals. Now let’s move to the NL East, home of their WS opponents the New York Mets (also home to the greatest mascot in MLB history, seen above).

Atlanta Braves

MLB Ranks: Braves
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 29th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 28th
Bullpen FIP-: 29th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 13th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 61-101 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +6)

Team Needs: Everything.

Seriously, the Braves were one of the worst teams in the majors in 2015. They’ve already traded away one of their few bright spots, their most productive starter went 6-17 with a 105 xFIP-Adjusted Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. xFIP differs from “regular” FIP by calculating home runs at a league average rate rather than actual, in an attempt to reduce seasonal variations in HR/FB ratio (since over time, that regresses to the mean). It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an xFIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s xFIP was 10% better than league average, and an xFIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse., and their third most productive position player (second, now that Simmons has been traded) is a cacther on a one-year contract who was born before the first Star Wars film was released. They’re in a rough spot.

076B8019 Freddie FreemanMove to make: Trade Freddie Freeman. If you’re going to trade Andrelton Simmons – a young, defensive cornerstone player on an affordable contract through 2020 – then you’re rebuilding, whether you know it or not. That’s not the move a team trying to win any time soon makes.

Given that, deal Freeman, who’s 27 next season and will be at his peak once the younger talent in the system starts to be valuable, and will be in decline when they’re hitting their peak. Move Freeman for players like those in the Simmons trade (20-22 year old players), and in three to four years hopefully you’ll be seeing that group of players getting productive around the younger pitching core the team already has (Shelby Miller, Alex Wood, and Julio Teheran are all 25-26 next season).

Plan B: Go whole hog, deal Freeman, Miller, Wood, and Teheran. Roll the dice and go boom or bust trying to pluck the next Trout, Harper, and Kershaw from other teams’ farm systems.

Miami Marlins:

MLB Ranks: Giancarlo Stanton on June 18, 2015
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 25th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 26th
Bullpen FIP-: 16th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 10th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 74-88 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. -3)

Team Needs: An owner who isn’t a con artist bilking the taxpayers out of millions while lining his own pockets at the expense of the fans.

Barring that, a much better first baseman. The Marlins got -1.5 fWARWins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s contributions in all facets of the game and quantify how many more wins that player contributed than a “replacement level” player would have (a replacement level player being a hypothetical “AAAA player” every team has in its farm system. out of the firstbase position in 2015 – last in MLB.

Chris Davis 2012Move to make: Sign Chris Davis. It’s the perfect Jeffrey Loria move: sign the big name to make a splash with the fans and media, feign an attempt to build a winner around the team’s young talent, then flip him a season or two later to save payroll.

Plan B: Sell the team to someone else. Until the Marlins are owned by someone who hasn’t trashed two different clubs, there’s no point to pretending the Marlins are actually trying to field a winning team. Moving on.

New York Mets

MLB Ranks: Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey on August 10, 2015
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 12th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 5th
Bullpen FIP-: 14th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 17th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 89-73 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +1)

Team Needs: Not that much.

The Mets have a potent, relatively young, relatively balanced, team. Their season ranks don’t reflect their strengths as much as they should, since they limped through a first half mired by multiple injuries before exploding in the second half once their roster was healthy.

Yoenis Céspedes on August 10, 2015Move to make: Don’t resign either of their big name free agents. The Mets have two headline-making players heading to free agency: Trade deadline spark-provider Yoenis Cespedes, and NLCS hero turned World Series goat, Daniel Murphy. Neither player is likely to be worth remotely what the Mets would need to pay to keep him.

Cespedes produced a monster year, combining a very good pre-deadline run for the Tigers with an absolutely scorching final two months for the Mets. He ended up putting up 6.7 fWAR overall in his best season in the majors by far. The problem is, he’s likely not going to be that player going forward even though he’ll likely get paid that way.

Even though Cespedes’ offensive production was up across the board, his peripheral stats weren’t, suggesting this isn’t a change that’s going to last. His BB% was the lowest in his career, dropping to 4.9% (20th worst in MLB of all qualifying players), his K% was 20.9%, exactly his career average, and his swing and contact rates were all roughly career norms. In addition, he turned 30 last month, meaning we probably just witnessed his career season in 2015.

Despite his crazy post season stats, Murphy is the same song, but only singing the chorus: Murphy’s 2015 was basically what he’s always produced. He provided 2.5 fWARWins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s contributions in all facets of the game and quantify how many more wins that player contributed than a “replacement level” player would have (a replacement level player being a hypothetical “AAAA player” every team has in its farm system. (avg. 2.4 fWAR the previous four seasons), a wRC+ of 110 (career 109), and a .281/.322/.449 slash line (career .288/.331/.424). Murphy turns 31 two days before opening day, and if he’s making more than $48-54m over 4 years, he’ll be overpaid.

Plan B: Don’t sign Alex Gordon. What better way to get better than snag a free agent from the team that beat you in the World Series? Lots of ways that aren’t that. Gordon is one year removed from a 6 WAR season and a four-year stretch averaging 5 WAR, but next year is his age-32 season, and he’s only going to get slower and more fragile (he played 104 games in 2015) over the course of his next contract – not what a team wants from an outfielder with a meaningful chunk of value in defense and baserunning.

Philadelphia Phillies

MLB Ranks: MG 2042-1 Odubel Herrera
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 28th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 30th
Bullpen FIP-: 17th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 28th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 62-100 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +1)

Team Needs: Everything except a centerfielder.

We hope Phillies fans like Odubel Herrera, because he’s gonna be their lone bright spot for a while (as a note, they should love him – a young, athletic, Rule 5 draft pick who exploded to All-Star level production his first season above AA? Every team wants a guy like him). They’ve got future studs in several spots, but only one or two (3B Maikel Franco the most obvious) are likely ready to join Herrera in the breakout club.

Ryan Howard3Move to make: Trade Ryan Howard or Carlos Ruiz to anyone who will give anything meaningful in return. The last two millstone contracts of the Amaro era, these may honestly be pipe dream moves. Howard is so washed up, he’ll be ready for dinner well into the next decade, and Ruiz is about to be a 37-year old catcher who’s averaged 100 games per season over the past four years.

Ruiz is one season removed from being a 3 fWARWins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s contributions in all facets of the game and quantify how many more wins that player contributed than a “replacement level” player would have (a replacement level player being a hypothetical “AAAA player” every team has in its farm system. player, so maybe someone will take him from the Phillies, but his contract isn’t that bad so they may not be pressed to move him (any contract is obviously awful if he repeats his -0.5 fWAR performance from 2015).

Howard is a bigger anchor. He’s way overpaid, has been worth negative WAR in three of the last four seasons, and hasn’t been worth over 1.6 WAR since 2009. The likely destination for him is almost certainly an AL team hoping his power rebounds as a DH, but it’s hard to imagine anyone really wanting to take that on. The Phillies are wasting money and at bats on Howard though (not to mention the damage he does in the field), so even a team willing to take on even a big chunk of his salary would make the trade worth it.

Plan B: Sit tight. Ruiz is off the books after next season, Howard drops to $10m/year in 2017 and is off the books after that. The only other player under a free agent contract is pitcher Matt Harrison, who came over in the Hamels deal. The Phillies did a surprisingly good job rebounding from the dumpster fire that was the Amaro era – don’t screw it up now with ill-advised free agent signings and adding age to a young club primed for a rise in the coming years.

Washington Nationals

MLB Ranks: BryceHarper2015SD001
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 14th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 4th
Bullpen FIP-: 13th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 20th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 89-73 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. -6)

Team Needs: Position players who play up to their value.

As we noted here, Bryce Harper was, by himself, worth about half of all the value the Nationals got from their position players. The team is more talented than that, though they lost a good pitcher in Jordan Zimmerman and two potentially productive position players (just not in 2015) in Ian Desmond and Denard Span. The Nats need to replace that lost value and decide which of their underperformers just had bad seasons and which need to be replaced.

Upton sd 2015Move to make: Sign Justin Upton. With Harper in RF, the Nats are one of the few teams that shouldn’t be looking to add Jason Heyward, but Upton in LF would provide a nice bookend to Harper.

He’s still relatively young (turning 29 next season) and has been a 3-4 WAR player over the past three seasons. He’s not quite the superstar he appeared he would be after his faux-breakout in 2011, but he’s a solid .270/.340/.450 hitter who’s going to provide 25+ HR and good baserunning. The Nats don’t need a monster (they’ve already got one), they need a solid supporting cast, and Upton fits that bill.

Plan B: Roll the dice and trade for Marcell Ozuna. CF is now vacant after the departure of Denard Span, who played well when he played, but didn’t play enough (1.4 fWARWins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s contributions in all facets of the game and quantify how many more wins that player contributed than a “replacement level” player would have (a replacement level player being a hypothetical “AAAA player” every team has in its farm system. in just 61 games). The Nats could still re-sign him, but he’s 32 in February and “Speed Guy in his 30s” tends not to be a good invesment.

The Marlins are supposedly shopping Ozuna and his price could be right after a down year (though the Marlins are evidently expecting a high price). Ozuna just turned 25 a few weeks ago and is only a season removed from a 3.7 fWAR season. The Marlins evidently want a pitcher in return and the Nats likely have a surplus of starters, even after the departure of Jordan Zimmermann – there should be a match to be made.

That’s the best move (and the second best) for each of the teams in the NL East, come back later for the rest of the MLB.

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