The Baseball off season is by far the most active and interesting of the four major North American sports. Superstars are routinely traded, prospects dealt for established players, and gigantic contracts handed out (all with guaranteed money – in MLB, that signature means something).
Because of that, the MLB off season is often as interesting as the games itself. Below we outline what we think is the best possible move – as well as a plan B – for each team. We’re not suggesting these are the most likely things to happen, nor are we suggesting that they all can happen, just that these are the optimal moves for each club.
We’ve tried to consider all the factors inherent in payroll, team outlook, and front office goals. The one thing we don’t really consider are the rumors about what cities or clubs a player might “like”, unless the player’s explicitly said they’re leaning towards one city over another (and even then, paycheck and playoff-contending rosters always seem to take precedent).
In evaluating contracts and team spending, we’re working under the assumption that 1 WARWins Above Replacement. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s contributions in all facets of the game and quantify how many more wins that player contributed than a “replacement level” player would have (a replacement level player being a hypothetical “AAAA player” every team has in its farm system. costs about $7m on the open market, so contracts that return better than that rate are good, those that don’t are bad.
Jump to a Division
AL East – AL Central – AL West
NL East – NL Central – NL West
Lets fire up the hotstove, beginning with the AL Central, home of the World Series Champions.
Chicago White Sox
MLB Ranks: 
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 26th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 10th
Bullpen FIP-: 17th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 30th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 72-90 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +4)
Team Needs: ¾ of an infield.
The White Sox received a grand total of -3 fWARWins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s contributions in all facets of the game and quantify how many more wins that player contributed than a “replacement level” player would have (a replacement level player being a hypothetical “AAAA player” every team has in its farm system. from their non-Jose Abreu infielders (-4.5 if we count 1B/DH Adam LaRoche) for a mark that is by far the worst in MLB. They’ve got a good, young pitching staff (with an ace in Chris Sale), but need an offense to compliment it. Even though the White Sox had a terrible 2015, there’s good reason to think that retooling is a far better idea than rebuilding.
Chicago has SS Tim Anderson waiting in the wings after a good season at AA, and maybe the makings of a serviceable middle infielder in Carlos Sanchez. At the hot corner, they’re several seasons away from 3B Trey Michalczewski (a middling high-A season this year), and 2B Micah Johnson is an offensive stud who will likely compete with Sanchez for the starting spot, but has the significant drawback of being absolutely awful at fielding his position.
Move to make: Sign free agent Ben Zobrist, let Johnson DH, and eat LaRoche’s salary while he rides the pine. The LaRoche contract was ugly when they signed it – $25m/2 years for a 35-year old DH that had produced 2.2 WAR the previous two seasons combined – no need to compound the mistake by continuing to give DH at-bats to a player posting a 75 wRC+
Johnson hits but he can’t field (-2.7 DEF in just 288 innings and a -14 UZR/150Ultimate Zone Rating scaled to a 150 game season. UZR measures how many defensive runs were saved or surrendered based that player’s defensive performance. UZR measures four components: Outfield Arm Runs, Double-Play Runs, Range Runs, and Error Runs.); that’s pretty much the definition of a DH. Zobrist is likely starting his decline years, but he’s still a versatile player and only one year removed from a four-season run of 5+ WAR years. He’ll give the White Sox a valuable starter who can play basically every position, and keep the left side of the infield warm for Anderson and Michalczweski.
Plan B: Sign Asdrubal Cabrera and do the same thing. Even though he’s five years younger, Cabrera isn’t likely to be nearly as good as Zobrist. They’ve got to get better across the infield though, and even if Cabrera is nothing more than a league average starter, it’ll be a 2-2.5 WAR gain over 2015.
Cleveland
MLB Ranks:
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 9th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 7th
Bullpen FIP-: 2nd
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 3rd
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 84-77 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. -3)
Team Needs: Almost none.
Cleveland was a top-10 team in every area and they didn’t lose anyone big to free agency. They’re also young, receiving essentially no meaningful production from players 32 and older, and almost half of their production (43%) from players 26 or younger. They’re in a very good spot and should contend for the AL Central crown for the next several years.
Move to make: Sign Dexter Fowler. Cleveland spent most of the year running Michael Bourn out to man centerfield before picking up Abraham Almonte at the deadline. Almonte was a productive player in Cleveland, putting up 1.4 fWAR in just 51 games, but he had put up -0.4 WAR for the Padres before that, and put up 0.8 in 2014. Even with his minor breakout, he was still just a slightly above league average hitter for Cleveland (111 wRC+).
If Cleveland doesn’t think Almonte is their long term solution in CF (and we don’t think he is), they’re too good to wait on getting a productive player. Cleveland is a contender now, and they’re young enough to be contenders for several years to come. Fowler turns 30 next season, provides solid defense and offense, and would shore up one of the few weak spots in the lineup.
Plan B: Alternatively, Cleveland could go all-in and try and sign Jason Heyward. If they think Almonte is a long-term option, and they’re willing to break the bank, Heyward makes their lineup downright terrifying. Heyward would replace Lonnie Chisenhall, who did a solid job (2.1 WAR) playing half his injury-shortened season in RF, so Heyward’s not as big an upgrade for Cleveland as he might be for other teams, but he’s a clear jewel to covet for a young contending club.
Detroit Tigers
MLB Ranks:.JPG)
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 5th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 28th
Bullpen FIP-: 28th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 8th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 69-92 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +5)
Team Needs: Get younger while still contending (easy, right?).
The Tigers got 3rd least position player WAR and least pitcher WAR from players 26 and younger. They got the lowest percentage of their total WAR from players 26 and younger (only 2%) and they also got the 2nd highest percentage of their total WAR from players 32 or older (43%).
Those are 2012 Phillies percentages, and that team finished 81-81, down from 102-60 the year before, the first year of what is now a ongoing, four year slide. Unless Detroit makes some very good moves, they’ve got an ugly future ahead of them.
The issue is, of course, that the Tigers have massive cash tied up in older players – $104.8m to just five players, all of whom are 32 or older next year. Two of those players, Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler, are still very productive (both have averaged at least 5.5 bWARWins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s contributions in all facets of the game and quantify how many more wins that player contributed than a “replacement level” player would have (a replacement level player being a hypothetical “AAAA player” every team has in its farm system. the past three seasons) and likely to earn their salaries for a couple of years more. There’s at least a chance the other three (Justin Verlander, Victor Martinez, and Anibal Sanchez) can at least be solid starters, even if they’re likely to be overpriced.
With an aging owner (86-year old Mike Ilitch) pushing hard for a championship, and the very real need to capitalize on the remaining years of one of the best hitters in MLB history, the Tigers need to both get younger and get better.
Move to make: Sign Jason Heyward. He’s young (only 26 this season), a solid bat (career wRC+ of 118, 121 in 2015), and absolutely great with the glove (Over the past three seasons he has the 3rd highest DEF of all OF and 8th of all players). He’s reaching his prime years and will likely deliver 5-6 WAR over the next 5+ seasons, with 4+ almost certain. His youth will let the Tigers ink him to a 9-10 year deal without worrying too much about the decline years.
$30m a year for 10 years is likely a okay deal (even if it looks gigantic), $25m a year for 10 is likely a good deal, anything less is a freaking steal. The only wrinkle is that the Tigers already have a good, young-ish RF in J.D. Martinez, who derives much of his defensive value from his strong arm in RF (8.8 ARMOutfield Arm Runs. The number of runs above or below average an outfielder saves with their arm by preventing runners from advancing. in 2015, highest in MLB for RF and more than his total UZRUltimate Zone Rating. UZR measures how many defensive runs were saved or surrendered compared to a league average player. UZR measures four components: Outfield Arm Runs, Double-Play Runs, Range Runs, and Error Runs. of 7.7). That said, they’ll figure it out – Heyward is just too good to pass up.
Plan B: Sign Justin Upton. If the Tigers get outbid for Heyward (say, by the Dodgers and their bottomless checkbook), Justin Upton is a decent consolation prize. He’ll turn 29 next season, and he’s not as productive as Heyward (roughly the same offensive production, nowhere near the defense), but he’s a borderline all-star who will slot nicely into LF for Detroit. Heck, even if the Tigers land Heyward, Upton could still be a nice signing, if the price is right ($18-20m/yr. over 5 or 6).
Kansas City Royals
MLB Ranks:
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 10th
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 21st
Bullpen FIP-: 10th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 1st
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 90-72 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +5)
Team Needs: A true ace.
For as good as the Royals have been the past two seasons, and as good as their starters were in the World Series, they do not have a legit ace. Yordano Ventura has the stuff to be an ace, but he hasn’t put it together yet (10th best K% of AL Starters, 7th worst BB%), and though Johnny Cueto was brought in mid-season to fill the role, he definitely didn’t deliver prior to the WS (102 xFIP-Adjusted Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. xFIP differs from “regular” FIP by calculating home runs at a league average rate rather than actual, in an attempt to reduce seasonal variations in HR/FB ratio (since over time, that regresses to the mean). It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an xFIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s xFIP was 10% better than league average, and an xFIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse. with the Royals during the regular season).
Move to make: Don’t resign Johnny Cueto. There’s going to be huge pressure to resign Cueto. Just last season he was a 20-game winning Cy Young candidate, and two seasons before that he won 19 with a very sexy ERA in both seasons. However, his FIP- and xFIP- haven’t been quite as amazing (roughly 85 and 90 over the two seasons), and his K-BB%Strikeout Percentage – Walk Percentage. Probably the best measure of both a pitcher’s strikeout skill and their control (and ability to prevent walks). When comparing pitchers with significantly different walk rates, it better reveals a pitchers power/control combination than K:BB ratio does (since that can be skewed by particularly good control, even with middling strikeout numbers). has never topped 13.6% before this season. He’s 30 next season, and he’s not the shutdown #1 a WS contender wants, but he is likely to get paid as one. The Royals’ payroll is still tight enough that they can’t afford to pay top dollar prices unless they get a top pitcher.
Plan B: Sign David Price. If the Royals do want to break the bank, the best starter on the market is Price. He’s been more productive than Greinke over the past three seasons and he’s a year younger. If the Royals are going to go out and buy an ace, Price is the only one on which they can afford to risk a big contract.
Minnesota Twins
MLB Ranks:
Team wRC+Weighted Runs Created Plus: A comprehensive measure of offensive production relative to the league. 100 is average and each point above or below is a percentage better or worse than the average player.: 23rd
Starter FIP-Adjusted Fielding Independent Pitching. A measure of the events “under the pitcher’s control” (HR, BB, Ks, HBP) that attempts to remove the influence of team defense – whether good or bad – on the pitcher’s stats. It is then adjusted for park effects and related to league average FIP. 100 is league average and every 1 point deviation from 100 is a percentage point better or worse than league average. E.g., an FIP- of 90 means the pitcher’s FIP was 10% better than league average, and an FIP- of 110 means it was 10% worse.: 14th
Bullpen FIP-: 24th
Team DEFDefensive Runs Above Average. A stat that attempts to measure a player’s defensive contributions, including a positional adjustment (i.e., a shortstop is considered more defensively valuable than a LF). Roughly 9-10 DEF is equal to one Win Above Replacement.: 18th
Pythagorean W-LExpected Win-Loss record based on the number of runs scored and allowed by the team. Comparing the actual win-loss record to the expectation can give insight into whether a team was “lucky” or “unlucky” (often due to record in 1-run games or extra inning games, two situations where teams are roughly .500 over time, but can vary greatly in a single season).: 81-81 (LuckThe difference between Pythagorean (i.e., expected) Win-Loss record and the actual win-loss record. Provides a rough insight into whether a team’s record was better or worse than could be expected from their runs scored and allowed. +2)
Needs: Genuinely rebuild.
The years of contending on a shoestring budget combined with a surprising record in 2015 have lead many to believe that the Twins are one or two pieces from true playoff contention; they’re not. The twins were only in the top half of MLB in one of our categories, and that only barely.
In addition, the sense that this is a team driven by young talent just isn’t true. The Twins were 25th in MLB in WAR provided by players 26 and under, and they only got 30% of their total production from players that age.
This team is a middling team with middlingly-aged players, and they need to genuinely rebuild if they want to contend in the future. Their top six salaries in 2016 are for players who will be 30+ years old in 2016, five of those six will be 32 or older. Even worse, those six players combined for 3.6 fWAR in 2015. That’s the production the Twins are getting out of $70m spread over six players. That’s atrocious.
Move to make: Go Logan’s Run on their older players, getting whatever value they can. Joe Mauer and his $23m/yr. is likely untradable (he’s slashed .270/.348/.725 with 14 HR total over the past two seasons – that’s almost exactly a league average hitter, not a superstar corner), but Phil Hughes should be. He’s just a season removed from a 5 WAR season, he still doesn’t walk anyone, and he’s only making $9.2m in 2016 and $13.2m after that. A lot of clubs could see him as a buy low risk.
Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco could also return mid-range prospects, as both are in the $12-13m/year range and capable of producing beyond that paycheck (of the two, Nolasco is the one most likely to get no interest).
Plan B: Pray Joe Mauer remembers how to play baseball. Seriously, the Twins payroll is top heavy with old unproductive players. Until that changes, there is no plan B for a team that needs to contend with young talent and shrewd spending.
That’s the best move (and the second best) for each of the teams in the AL Central, come back later this weekend for the rest of the MLB.